Thursday, March 30, 2017
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Hardcopy Research: last shipped March 1, 2017
Online Research:

Strategist updated a/o 03/01/2017
Workbook
updated a/o 03/24/2017
File Downloads Weekly >> updated a/o 03/26/2017
File Downloads Monthly >> updated a/o 02/24/2017

Media: 02/07/2012: 2011 Top Performers

08/16/2011: 6 stocks insiders are snapping up

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WEEKLY RESEARCH: Weekly Insider Data and Commentary files were last updated on Sunday, March 26th, with data from the Friday, March 24th SEC closeout. Please review your Commentary File for particulars. The Insider portion of the Workbook section of the WebSite was populated with new weekly data and e-mail versions were distributed as well. (Data for all companies, and broad strategy commentary highlights) The Insider Commentary file of the past weekend includes an updated, thumbnail Strategic view of the Markets from the top-down perspective of all models. The MPT Top Down View Remains a Sell this week. All models suggest that a significant and sharp decline in prices lie directly ahead. At the Sector level, Energy, Conglomerates, and Consumer Staples occupy the first 3 slotsFinance remains particularly problematic from the Insider perspective. The Markets cannot be viewed as a singular snapshot, but are instead a dynamic, moving picture. Employing MPT research to follow and anticipate the most probable trend features and changes is an important aspect of the research.

MONTHLY RESEARCH: The April 2017 edition of Market Profile Theorems will be run based on the data close-out of Friday, March 31st, 2017. Your specific data files will be pushed to you on Sunday April 2nd, 2017. The WEB site data (Workbook section) will be available on Sunday evening at 11:00 PM, and include refreshed Probability Plots, Screening features, and Files located in the monthly File Download section of the Web-site. The Strategy notebook should arrive on Thursday, April 6th. If you do not receive your files, or the notebook by the dates indicated, please contact us. Reach us by e-mail or call 206-890-6789 if you wish to schedule a conference call in April.

GENERAL COMMENTARY: Style closed February with no Capitalization preference and a Value bias. The March asset allocation projection has a Small-Capitalization preference, and expects Value will lead performance. MPT bottom-up model performance, relative to the S&P 500, was poor in February. The aggregate top-down model is Bearish at "-3" this week, and the Technical model turned more Bearish -2. The negative trend of the Top-down Earnings model improved last week (-10.04), but remains in a well-defined, descending channel.  It argues for patience in the longer-term. A mark-down phase is well underway, and the rally window, from Feb of 2016, closed in June. Yields headed lower last week. The quickening pace of inflation, (3% over the past 6 months), recent drop to below 1% in Q1, 2017 GDP estimates, and a surprisingly low Q4, 2016 GDP number of 1.9% continues the Stagflation conversation again.  The GDP for Q3 was 3.5%. The last half of 2016 did better than the first half, with 1.8% for the year now a good estimate. The overall trend remains concerning for the Markets - especially with what we see as alarmingly high valuations present for equities. See the weekly Insider Commentaries, and the monthly Strategist, (Green Book) for further details and interpretation. The weekly Insider Commentary provides additional color. A stronger Dollar, and the recent uptick in inflation are problematic for the economy - particularly with the recent fall off in orders. Gold rose for the second week, closing, at $1248.50, remaining longer-term constructive for higher bullion prices.

The Market Cycle, in terms of MPT's "Market Clock," remains at 10:30, was in a MARK DOWN phase for the last half of 2014 through 2015, and began 2016 with the same profile. This Bull cycle within a Secular Bear Market has closed. Please see the current weekend's Commentary, as this has important implications for the Equity Markets. Insider, and the Summary model, will drive performance going forward.

Top-Down Review: Following a very accurate 2011 and 2012 for Buy and Sell price targets based on our Top-down models, 2013 started a period where top-down pricing levels were more difficult animals to wrestle with. Our upside targets were far short of levels reached that year, and our downside view too aggressive. 2014 started out weaker and was more in line with our long-held expectations for significantly lower equity prices but, with the exception of the Small-cap space, the trend into the close of 2014. 2015 was an anemic year for overall price performance in the major benchmarks. 2016 was an average performance year for equities with gains around 9.5% for the S&P 500 - far better than the significant loss we had anticipated. Bottom up performance for all of our models was quite good in 2016, with all long-side, 52 company selection portfolios outperforming the S&P 500. Our expected price range for the S&P 500 in 2017 is again Bearish with a high of 2300, low of 1560, and a close of 1950.

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Market Profile Theorems Inc. (MPT) is a leading provider of quantitative investment research, specializing in the area of style management relating to US Equities. The company's primary client base consists of premier institutional money managers and plan sponsors. In 1989 MPT established its headquarters in Seattle, Washington and has since opened a satellite office in Bonita Springs, Florida, USA.

 

The cornerstone of MPT's success is its ability to build and nurture client relationships. MPTonline is a further example of the company's desire to communicate effectively and efficiently with existing and future clients. While we continue to provide the traditional forms of communication via color hardcopy materials, WinMPT (the Company's windows based application), facsimile, teleconferencing and timely in-person visits, MPTonline provides our customers with yet another delivery option.

 

MPainchaud MICHAEL P. PAINCHAUD

Mr. Painchaud is a Founder/Principal of Market Profile Theorems, Inc. and also serves as the Managing Director of Research. Mr. Painchaud has thirty-one years of research experience, which includes Editor and Publisher of Market Timing Profiles, an Investment Newsletter. As Director of CASE Research for Daiwa Securities America Inc., he was responsible for the creation and production of equity research products distributed to the U.S., Canada and Japan. He has extensive experience in the fields of systems design, product development and production, and has been a member of the Association for Investment Management & Research, and the Scholarship program in place at its Seattle chapter, since 1990.

 RUSSELL J. BROOKS

Mr. Brooks is a Founder/Principal of Market Profile Theorems Inc., a Seattle, WA company that provides Quantitative Investment Research, particularly in the area of "Style Management", to major Institutional Money Managers and Plan Sponsors. Including the founding of Market Profile Theorems in 1989, Mr. Brooks has thirty-six years experience in providing investment research to institutional Money Managers and Plan Sponsors. In July 1993, Mr. Brooks was the only research provider in the United States invited to testify before the US House of Representatives Subcommittee for "soft dollars", the so called "Markey hearings". In addition, he has given numerous speeches nationwide on this subject. Mr. Brooks presented a position paper for Alternative Quantitative Approaches to Long Short Strategies at the Market-Neutral Investment Strategies Conference. Excerpts from this presentation were included in a book published in April 1996 by Irwin Press as part of their Asset Allocation Series for Institutional Investors.

Copyright ©2003 Market Profile Theorems, Inc. All rights reserved.

The data contained in this report were taken from statistical services, reports in our possession, and from other sources. The opinions and estimates expressed are our own, and we make no representation either as to the accuracy or as to the existence of other facts or interpretations which might be significant. The information herein was gathered from responsible sources but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. We may from time to time have a position in the securities described in this report and may buy or sell such securities.