Tuesday, March 20, 2018
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Hardcopy Research: last shipped February 28, 2018
Online Research:

Strategist updated a/o 02/28/2018
updated a/o 03/16/2018
File Downloads Weekly >> updated a/o 03/16/2018
File Downloads Monthly >> updated a/o 02/23/2018

Media: 02/07/2012: 2011 Top Performers

08/16/2011: 6 stocks insiders are snapping up

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MPT Newsroom

WEEKLY RESEARCH: Weekly Insider Data and Commentary files were last updated on Sunday, March 18th 2018, with data as of the Friday, March 16th SEC closeout. Please review your Commentary File for particulars. The Insider portion of the Workbook section of the Website was populated with new weekly data and e-mail versions were distributed as well. (Data for all companies, and broad strategy commentary highlights) The Insider Commentary file of the past weekend includes an updated, thumbnail Strategic view of the Markets from the top-down perspective of all models. The MPT Top Down View falls back to a more Bearish "-2", this week.  On a price performance basis, at the ETF Sector level, Utilities and Technology, did best.  Materials, and Financials lagged most.  Energy continues improved on the Insider model, and is due for a bounce.  The Markets cannot be viewed as a singular snapshot, but are instead a dynamic, moving picture. Employing MPT research to follow and anticipate the most probable trend features and changes is an important aspect of the research.

MONTHLY RESEARCH: The March 2017 edition of Market Profile Theorems was run based on the data close-out of Friday, February 23rd, 2017. Your specific monthly data files were pushed to you on Sunday, February 25th, 2018.  WEB site data (Workbook section) were available Sunday at 11 PM, and included refreshed Probability Plots, Screening features, and Files located in the monthly File Download section of the Web-site. The Strategy notebook should have arrived on Thursday, March 1st. If you did not receive your files, or the notebook by the dates indicated, please contact us.  Reach us by e-mail or call 206-890-6789 if you wish to schedule a conference call in March.

GENERAL COMMENTARY: Style closed February with a Small-Capitalization and Growth bias.  The March asset allocation projection carries a Small Capitalization preference and a Value expectation.  MPT bottom-up model performance, relative to the S&P 500, lagged over the February period The MPT process was best at correctly selecting under-performers, and the Insider Selections did well.  All but 2, 12-month screen returns beat the S&P performance in 2017.  The aggregate top-down model turns more Bearish at "-3" this week, and the Technical dropped to a Bearish "-2."  The trend of the Top-down Earnings Model again accelerated higher, remains Neutral at +8.18, but is nearing a bullish area.  If it attains it, are forecast for higher GDP numbers than anticipated will resume. The final release of Q3 GDP came in higher at 3.2% - above expectations.  This makes 2 successive Quarters of 3% GDP - the last time this evolved was Q2 and 3 of 2014.  GDPNOW Q1, 2018 estimate fell again last week, to finish at 1.8%. Yields were mixed, with spreads narrowing to 54 bp (2 to 10 year). We now anticipate sharp narrowing in the weeks directly ahead.  Alarmingly high valuations continue present for equities.  See the weekly Insider Commentaries, and the monthly Strategist, (Green Book) for further details and interpretation.  The weaker Dollar looks to be trying to find a bottom at 88.5 to 89.  For now, weakness is a short-term positive for the economy - and in particular Large-cap Multinationals.  Gold remains below the $1330 level - not by much on a closing basis - and we believe it should find support as it is oversold.  It remains a short, and long-term buy.  (Our 2018 Year-end target is $1550.)  Inflationary Forces Continue to Gain Strength.

The Market Cycle, in terms of MPT's "Market Clock," remains at 10:30.

Top-Down Look Back: Equity selection for the year 2017 was very good, with all but 2 MPT Model Screens outperforming the S&P 500.

In The News




Market Profile Theorems Inc. (MPT) is a leading provider of quantitative investment research, specializing in the area of style management relating to US Equities. The company's primary client base consists of premier institutional money managers and plan sponsors. In 1989 MPT established its headquarters in Seattle, Washington and has since opened a satellite office in Bonita Springs, Florida, USA.


The cornerstone of MPT's success is its ability to build and nurture client relationships. MPTonline is a further example of the company's desire to communicate effectively and efficiently with existing and future clients. While we continue to provide the traditional forms of communication via color hardcopy materials, WinMPT (the Company's windows based application), facsimile, teleconferencing and timely in-person visits, MPTonline provides our customers with yet another delivery option.



Mr. Painchaud is a Founder/Principal of Market Profile Theorems, Inc. and also serves as the Managing Director of Research. Mr. Painchaud has thirty-one years of research experience, which includes Editor and Publisher of Market Timing Profiles, an Investment Newsletter. As Director of CASE Research for Daiwa Securities America Inc., he was responsible for the creation and production of equity research products distributed to the U.S., Canada and Japan. He has extensive experience in the fields of systems design, product development and production, and has been a member of the Association for Investment Management & Research, and the Scholarship program in place at its Seattle chapter, since 1990.


Mr. Brooks is a Founder/Principal of Market Profile Theorems Inc., a Seattle, WA company that provides Quantitative Investment Research, particularly in the area of "Style Management", to major Institutional Money Managers and Plan Sponsors. Including the founding of Market Profile Theorems in 1989, Mr. Brooks has thirty-six years experience in providing investment research to institutional Money Managers and Plan Sponsors. In July 1993, Mr. Brooks was the only research provider in the United States invited to testify before the US House of Representatives Subcommittee for "soft dollars", the so called "Markey hearings". In addition, he has given numerous speeches nationwide on this subject. Mr. Brooks presented a position paper for Alternative Quantitative Approaches to Long Short Strategies at the Market-Neutral Investment Strategies Conference. Excerpts from this presentation were included in a book published in April 1996 by Irwin Press as part of their Asset Allocation Series for Institutional Investors.

Copyright ©2003 Market Profile Theorems, Inc. All rights reserved.

The data contained in this report were taken from statistical services, reports in our possession, and from other sources. The opinions and estimates expressed are our own, and we make no representation either as to the accuracy or as to the existence of other facts or interpretations which might be significant. The information herein was gathered from responsible sources but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. We may from time to time have a position in the securities described in this report and may buy or sell such securities.