Monday, August 31, 2015
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Hardcopy Research: last shipped August 5, 2015
Online Research:

Strategist updated a/o 08/5/2015
Workbook
updated a/o 08/28/2015
File Downloads Weekly >> updated a/o 08/28/2015
File Downloads Monthly >> updated a/o 08/28/2015

Media: 02/07/2012: 2011 Top Performers

08/16/2011: 6 stocks insiders are snapping up

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WEEKLY RESEARCH:  Weekly Insider Data and Commentary files were last updated on Sunday, August 30th, with data from the Friday, August 28th, SEC closeout.  The Insider portion of the Workbook section of the WebSite was populated with new weekly data on Saturday, and e-mail versions were distributed Saturday as well. (Data for all companies, and broad strategy commentary)  The Insider Commentary file of the past weekend includes an updated, thumbnail Strategic view of the Markets from the top-down perspective of all models.  The Markets cannot be viewed as a singular snapshot, but are instead a dynamic, moving picture.  Employing MPT research to follow and anticipate the most probable trend changes is an important aspect of the research.

MONTHLY RESEARCH:  The September 2015 edition of Market Profile Theorems was run based on the data close-out of Friday, August 28th.  Your specific data files were pushed to you on Sunday, August 30th. The WEB site data (Workbook section) was be available on Sunday 8/30/15 at 10:42 PM, and included refreshed Probability Plots, Screening features, and Files located in the monthly File Download section of the Web-site.  The Strategy notebook should arrive on Thursday, September 3rd.  If you do not receive your files, or the notebook by the dates indicated, please contact us. Reach us by e-mail or call 239-948-0101 if you wish to schedule a conference call in September.

GENERAL COMMENTARY:  Style closed August in a Neutral Cap/Value mode.  September investment allocation is expected to reflect no Capitalization preference and a slight tilt toward Value. MPT bottom-up model performance, relative to the S&P 500, was very good in August but Insider lagged again.  While the Insider, Sentiment and Insider Models currently support higher prices in the short-term, the Style model and continuing acceleration of the Top-down Earnings model to the downside argue for patience in the longer-term. Chasing 3-5 year positions at this point will likely be a mistake as our longer view is that we have moved into the Mark-down phase of what will be a cyclical Bear market.  There will be better opportunities to position for the long-term. The DJIA tested the 15,250 level last month - blowing through the 17,000 area to the downside, and rebounded sharply from there, but we continue to expect a test of the 14,800 area before year-end. The 19 month disconnect (decoupling) between the Bond and Equity Markets is starting to be resolved.  As expected the top-down, monthly Earnings model degraded significantly last month to -1.05. More degradation is expected in September.  We expect the poor reported earnings for Q1 and Q2 to continue into Q3 2015, and accelerating downward analyst revisions to be an increasingly concering issue for the Markets - especially with what we see as already rich valuations present for equities.  Financials, Real Estate and Construction continue to be areas to be avoided.  See the weekly Insider Commentaries, and the monthly Strategist, (Green Book) for further details and interpretation.  The weekly Insider Commentary provides additional color.

The Market Cycle, in terms of MPT's "Market Clock," is at 10:00, is in a MARK DOWN phase in 2015, and was for most of 2014. This Bull cycle within a Secular Bear Market has closed.  Please see the current weekend's Commentary, as this has important implications for the Equity Markets. Insider, and the Summary model, will drive performance going forward.

As to the Top-Down work: Following a very accurate 2011, and 2012 for Buy and Sell price targets based on our Top-down models, 2013 started a period where top-down pricing levels were more difficult animals to wrestle with. Our upside targets were far short of levels reached that year, and our downside view too aggressive.  2014 started out weaker and was more in line with our long-held expectations for significantly lower equity prices but, with the exception of the Small-cap space, the trend into the close of 2014 continued against the grain of our expectations Growth drove perfromance starting in December and style has generally moved in that direction since.  We are currently well-off the high-end of the expected trading range for 2015, and expect an intermediate-term correction of 15 % - 20% - with 15,250 holding for now. A longer-term decline could take the Markets to 14,800 in 2015 and then to the 12800 level into 2016.

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About Us

Market Profile Theorems Inc. (MPT) is a leading provider of quantitative investment research, specializing in the area of style management relating to US Equities. The company's primary client base consists of premier institutional money managers and plan sponsors. In 1989 MPT established its headquarters in Seattle, Washington and has since opened a satellite office in Bonita Springs, Florida, USA.

 

The cornerstone of MPT's success is its ability to build and nurture client relationships. MPTonline is a further example of the company's desire to communicate effectively and efficiently with existing and future clients. While we continue to provide the traditional forms of communication via color hardcopy materials, WinMPT (the Company's windows based application), facsimile, teleconferencing and timely in-person visits, MPTonline provides our customers with yet another delivery option.

 

MPainchaud MICHAEL P. PAINCHAUD

Mr. Painchaud is a Founder/Principal of Market Profile Theorems, Inc. and also serves as the Managing Director of Research. Mr. Painchaud has thirty-one years of research experience, which includes Editor and Publisher of Market Timing Profiles, an Investment Newsletter. As Director of CASE Research for Daiwa Securities America Inc., he was responsible for the creation and production of equity research products distributed to the U.S., Canada and Japan. He has extensive experience in the fields of systems design, product development and production, and has been a member of the Association for Investment Management & Research, and the Scholarship program in place at its Seattle chapter, since 1990.

 RUSSELL J. BROOKS

Mr. Brooks is a Founder/Principal of Market Profile Theorems Inc., a Seattle, WA company that provides Quantitative Investment Research, particularly in the area of "Style Management", to major Institutional Money Managers and Plan Sponsors. Including the founding of Market Profile Theorems in 1989, Mr. Brooks has thirty-six years experience in providing investment research to institutional Money Managers and Plan Sponsors. In July 1993, Mr. Brooks was the only research provider in the United States invited to testify before the US House of Representatives Subcommittee for "soft dollars", the so called "Markey hearings". In addition, he has given numerous speeches nationwide on this subject. Mr. Brooks presented a position paper for Alternative Quantitative Approaches to Long Short Strategies at the Market-Neutral Investment Strategies Conference. Excerpts from this presentation were included in a book published in April 1996 by Irwin Press as part of their Asset Allocation Series for Institutional Investors.

 
Copyright ©2003 Market Profile Theorems, Inc. All rights reserved.

The data contained in this report were taken from statistical services, reports in our possession, and from other sources. The opinions and estimates expressed are our own, and we make no representation either as to the accuracy or as to the existence of other facts or interpretations which might be significant. The information herein was gathered from responsible sources but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. We may from time to time have a position in the securities described in this report and may buy or sell such securities.