Tuesday, July 29, 2014
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Hardcopy Research: last shipped July 2, 2014
Online Research:

Strategist updated a/o 07/02/2014
Workbook
updated a/o 07/25/2014
File Downloads Weekly >> updated a/o 07/25/2014
File Downloads Monthly >> updated a/o 06/27/2014

Media: 02/07/2012: 2011 Top Performers

08/16/2011: 6 stocks insiders are snapping up

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WEEKLY RESEARCH:  Weekly Insider Data and Commentary files were last updated on Sunday, July 27th, with data from the Friday, July 25th, SEC closeout.  The Insider portion of the Workbook section of the WebSite was populated with new weekly data on Sunday, and e-mail versions were distributed then as well. (Data for all companies, and broad strategy commentary)  The Insider Commentary file of the past weekend includes an updated, thumbnail Strategic view of the Markets from the top-down perspective of all models.   The Markets cannot be viewed as a singular snapshot, but are instead a dynamic, moving picture.  Employing MPT research to follow and anticipate the most probable trend changes is an important aspect of the research.

MONTHLY RESEARCH:  The August, 2014 edition of Market Profile Theorems will be run based on the data close-out of Friday, August 1st.  Your specific data files will be pushed to you on Sunday, August 3rd. The WEB site data (Workbook section) will be available on Sunday evening, 8/3 at around 11 PM, and include refreshed Probability Plots, Screening features, and Files located in the monthly File Download section of the Web-site.  The Strategy notebook should arrive on Thursday, August 7th.  If you do not receive your files, or the notebook by the dates indicated, please contact us. Reach us by e-mail or call 239-948-0101 if you wish to schedule a conference call in August.

GENERAL COMMENTARY:  Style closed June in a Neutral Capitalization, Growth mode.  MPT model performance, relative to the S&P 500, at the individual company level was excellent over the June 2014 period.  The bearish outlook suggested by the Strategy portion of the research last month remains in place.  A new concern which data has revealed over the past month is that with a negative GDP print for Q1, 2014 (the 17th worst quarter on record - with the remainder of the worst 24 all being followed by a recession), and inflation indicators such as the PPI, CPI, and Gold prices perking up, a Stagflation scenario becomes an odds-on probability.  The odds are high that we are in a Distribution phase of this cyclical Bull Market.  We see a good possibility of DJIA 16,028  being visited over the next few weeks. The top-down, monthly Earnings model continues in a sideways to downtrend - well below the highs of 2011.  See the weekly Insider Commentaries, and the monthly Strategist, (Green Book) for further details and interpretation.  This issue of the weekly Insider Commentary provides additional color.

The Market Cycle, in terms of MPT's "Market Clock," is off 9:00, and is in the MARK DOWN phase. This Bull cycle within a Secular Bear Market has closed.  Please see the current weekend's Commentary, as this has important implications for the Equity Markets. Insider, and the Summary model, will drive performance going forward.

As to the Top-Down work, following a very accurate 2011, and 2012 for Buy and Sell price targets based on our Top-down models, 2013 started a period where top-down pricing levels were a more difficult animal to wrestle with. Our upside targets were far short of levels reached that year, and our downside view too aggressive.  2014 started out weaker and was more in line with our long-held expectations for significantly lower equity prices but, with the exception of the Small-cap space, the trend in the past 2 months has continued against the grain of our expectations.  Larger-cap has again driven perfromance thus far in July. We are currently above the high end of the expected trading range for 2014, and now expect an intermediate-term correction of 15 % - 20% - with DJIA 16,028 as an initial target. A longer-term decline that should take out the lows of 2013.

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About Us

Market Profile Theorems Inc. (MPT) is a leading provider of quantitative investment research, specializing in the area of style management relating to US Equities. The company's primary client base consists of premier institutional money managers and plan sponsors. In 1989 MPT established its headquarters in Seattle, Washington and has since opened a satellite office in Bonita Springs, Florida, USA.

 

The cornerstone of MPT's success is its ability to build and nurture client relationships. MPTonline is a further example of the company's desire to communicate effectively and efficiently with existing and future clients. While we continue to provide the traditional forms of communication via color hardcopy materials, WinMPT (the Company's windows based application), facsimile, teleconferencing and timely in-person visits, MPTonline provides our customers with yet another delivery option.

 

MPainchaud MICHAEL P. PAINCHAUD

Mr. Painchaud is a Founder/Principal of Market Profile Theorems, Inc. and also serves as the Managing Director of Research. Mr. Painchaud has thirty-one years of research experience, which includes Editor and Publisher of Market Timing Profiles, an Investment Newsletter. As Director of CASE Research for Daiwa Securities America Inc., he was responsible for the creation and production of equity research products distributed to the U.S., Canada and Japan. He has extensive experience in the fields of systems design, product development and production, and has been a member of the Association for Investment Management & Research, and the Scholarship program in place at its Seattle chapter, since 1990.

 RUSSELL J. BROOKS

Mr. Brooks is a Founder/Principal of Market Profile Theorems Inc., a Seattle, WA company that provides Quantitative Investment Research, particularly in the area of "Style Management", to major Institutional Money Managers and Plan Sponsors. Including the founding of Market Profile Theorems in 1989, Mr. Brooks has thirty-six years experience in providing investment research to institutional Money Managers and Plan Sponsors. In July 1993, Mr. Brooks was the only research provider in the United States invited to testify before the US House of Representatives Subcommittee for "soft dollars", the so called "Markey hearings". In addition, he has given numerous speeches nationwide on this subject. Mr. Brooks presented a position paper for Alternative Quantitative Approaches to Long Short Strategies at the Market-Neutral Investment Strategies Conference. Excerpts from this presentation were included in a book published in April 1996 by Irwin Press as part of their Asset Allocation Series for Institutional Investors.

 
Copyright ©2003 Market Profile Theorems, Inc. All rights reserved.

The data contained in this report were taken from statistical services, reports in our possession, and from other sources. The opinions and estimates expressed are our own, and we make no representation either as to the accuracy or as to the existence of other facts or interpretations which might be significant. The information herein was gathered from responsible sources but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. We may from time to time have a position in the securities described in this report and may buy or sell such securities.