Today, as a Portfolio Manager, it is not enough to know where an Economic Sector stands on the basis of its Balance Sheet or Income Statement. Analyst opinions, as well as Dividend Discount, and Cash Flow models tell an incomplete story of the prospects for an Industry, and it seems that Economists - lined up end to end - never reach a conclusion.
Where Are You in the Economic Cycle?
To fill out the top-down picture one needs to know where an economic sector stands in terms of the Behavioral Market Clock. For MPT, this "clock" engages and integrates 4 important behavioral models: Insider, Analyst, Technical, and Style. Together they form a risk control check on the Fundamental and Econometric side of the investment equation.
Seeing is Believing and Aggregation Provides the Statistical Confirmation
It is also not enough to have access to raw data in these areas. One must be able to "see" these data in a modeled form, of robust and tested construction, in order that actionability becomes more meaningful. The "vision" must include sector-relative as well as sector self-relative modeled outcomes. This is even more important at the economic sector level where aggregation of company and industry data on Insider, Analyst, Technical and Style behavior can lead to better top-down decision-making.
Market Profile Theorems has been providing a consistently modeled, integrated behavioral approach to Sector selection to Portfolio Managers in these important areas for over 17-years.
Should I Over-weight or Under-weight an Economic Sector?
In the Sector section of the MPT Workbook you will be able to quickly, and efficiently determine:
- Which Sectors are emerging as early favorites in the behavioral matrix using our unique Probability Plot visualization technique?
- In which Sectors is Insider behavior beginning to diverge from Analyst behavior?
- What is the relationship of Market Pricing Behavior, (Technical Strength), to Insider or Analyst outlooks for the Sector?
- What are the important behavioral drivers supporting (or working against) a Sector weighting?